Shuijingfang (600779): Benefit from industry growth and channel expansion Sub-high-end products maintain rapid growth

Shuijingfang (600779): Benefit from industry growth and channel expansion Sub-high-end products maintain rapid growth

Sub-high-end products maintained rapid growth, and structural upgrades and scale effects increased profitability. The company’s 18-year revenue28.

190,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.

62%, 18Q4 income 6.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

94%.

1Q1 revenue 9.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 24.

25%.

It is reported that the company’s online communication conference published on the ZOOM platform, 19Q1 premium wine income9.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.

31%, including high-end product line revenue growth of 1%, sub-high-end product line revenue growth of more than 30%.

Medium and high-end wine (including 0.

24 trillion mid-range wine) revenue growth 28.

51%, of which sales increased by 27.

09%, mainly benefited from the company’s channel expansion, the ton price increased slightly due to the structural upgrade1.

12%.

Net profit attributable to 成都桑拿网 mother for 18 years5.

79 trillion, an increase of 72 in ten years.

72%, 18Q4 attributed to mother net profit1.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

66%.

19Q1 returns to mother’s net profit 2.

19 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.

16%.

1Q1 gross margin increased by 1.

79 PCT to 82.

58%, we expect to benefit mainly from the ton price increase brought about by the product structure upgrade.

The company’s 19Q1 expense ratio benefited from the scale effect of more than 4 PCT declines.

Benefiting from the growth of the sub-high-end industry and the development of internal channels, the steady and steady growth of earnings According to the company’s 18-year report, the company’s revenue growth target for 19 years was about 20%, and its net profit growth target was about 30%.

We expect the company to benefit from the growth of the next high-end industry and its own channel expansion is expected to achieve its revenue target.

The continued high-end of the product aims to continue to improve profitability.

In the future, the company will increase its investment in well platforms, and at the same time continue to promote the newly launched collections and elites. The products will continue to be high-end and the gross profit rate will be continuously improved.

It is expected that the profitability will continue to increase due to the reduction in the expense ratio brought about by the scale effect and the price increase effect brought by the reduction of the incremental rate.

Earnings forecast We expect the company’s revenue to be 34 in 19-21.

58/42.

32/51.

43 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

65% / 22.41% / 21.

52%; net profit attributable to mothers is 7, respectively.

85/10.

09/12.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

45% / 28.

51% / 25.

98%; EPS are 1.

61/2.

06/2.

60 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 29/23/18 times. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 3 years is 30%. We give 30 times PE in 19 years, corresponding to PEG equal to 1, and a reasonable value of 48.

3 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

Risk warning: intensified second-end competition, consumption upgrades exceed expectations, and structural upgrades fall short of expectations.