Archives March 2020

Ansteel (000898): Bills receivable decrease and operating cash flow improves

Ansteel (000898): Bills receivable decrease and operating cash flow improves
19 profit in the third quarter 2.9.7 billion, 南宁桑拿 YoY-88% / QoQ-71% On October 29, the company released the third quarter report for 2019: the first three quarters of 2019 achieved operating income of 776.230,000 yuan (YoY-0.24%); net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company17.2.2 billion (74.88%).3Q19 achieved operating income of 265.4.9 billion (YoY-1.49%, QoQ-0.23%); net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company2.9.7 billion (YoY-87.70%, QoQ-70.54%), in line with previous expectations.We expect the company to have EPS 0 in 2019-21.23, 0.25, 0.27 yuan, target price 3.24-3.46 yuan, maintain “neutral” rating. 19Q3 gross margin decreased, cost ratio improved month-on-month It is said that China United Steel, 19Q3 five major steel prices fell month-on-month, thread, wire, hot rolled, cold rolled, average price of plate (excluding tax) were 3473, 3701,3352, 3893 and 3,441 yuan / ton, which were changed by -8 several times.7%, -7.4%, -9.4%, -7.3%, -9.5%, the chain changes -4.3%, -2.4%, -3.9%, -1.0%, -3.7%, the downturn in automobile production and sales dragged down the coil.The company’s products have multiple coils, and the ore price has been increased, and the company’s gross profit margin has decreased.19Q3, the company’s gross profit margin 7.1% (YoY-8.8pct, QoQ-4.5pct).During the same period, the company’s period expense ratio was 5.5% (+0 year-on-year.1pct, QoQ-0.4pct), the chain ratio exceeded sales mainly, and the R & D expense ratio all changed -0.2pct. The cash flow improved significantly from the previous quarter. The size of bills receivable decreased by 19Q3. The company’s net operating cash flow was 2.6 billion (QoQ + 47%). The cash generated from sales of goods and labor services accounted for 94% of operating income (QoQ + 9pct).Momentum increased.19Q1-Q3, payable by the company, prepaid items accounted for 13% and 5% of operating costs (YoY-3pct, -0.3pct); receivables, pre-received items account for 9% and 7% of operating income (YoY-8pct, -2pct), and the company’s ability to occupy downstream funds has increased.At the end of 19Q3, there were 25 trillion notes receivable, which was earlier and the interim reports were 65% and -51%, mainly because the company increased the ratio of currency receipts and increased the discount of notes.In addition, according to the company’s three quarterly report, company 4.9.4 billion were later discounted by the recourse party to recover the due unpaid bank acceptance bills or transferred accounts receivable. Looking forward to the improvement of automobile production and sales, it is beneficial to the coil. According to the China Automobile Association, after May 2019, dealers will promote “National Five”, manufacturers will stock “National Six” to promote automobile production, and sales will show an upward trend in the month.Under the background of low inventory of auto plants and improvement of dealers’ inventory, a low base of 18Q4 is superimposed. It is expected that the growth or improvement of automobile production and sales in 19Q4 will benefit downstream demand for steel companies that include automobiles, and the company’s performance will benefit. The management of bills receivable has been improved, and the company’s bills receivable that maintain a “neutral” rating have dropped significantly. The company’s loss probability of unaccepted bank acceptance bills remains to be seen. We do not make provision for the time being, but suggest possible one-time losses.We expect the company to have EPS 0 in 2019-21.23, 0.25, 0.27 yuan, BVPS is 5.58,5.77, 5.96 yuan, PB 0.55, 0.53, 0.51 times, the average value of comparable company PB (2019E) is 0.63 times, considering that the price and demand of coils in Northeast China exceed North China and East China, the company will be given PB 0 in 2019.58-0.62 times, target price 3.24-3.46 yuan, maintain “neutral” rating. Risk warning: The growth rate of automobile production and sales is lower than expected; unaccepted bank acceptance bills are not recovered.

Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191): Leader in the cigarette label industry, with new tobacco development highlights

Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191): Leader in the cigarette label industry, with new tobacco development highlights

Core Views Leading companies in the tobacco label industry, color boxes, and new tobacco development are interesting.

The company was incorporated in Shenzhen in 1996 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2007. Its current business position is in the research, production, and sales of high-end packaging prints and packaging materials. Its main products include cigarette labels, color boxes, and laser packaging materials. It is a leader in the tobacco label industry.At the same time, the company is actively exploring the field of new tobacco products, and a new point of performance growth is formed in the later stage.

In 2018, the company benefited from the continuous improvement of the tobacco market, the development of color box products market, and the company’s operating income 33.

74 trillion, +14 ten years ago.

56%; due to the slightly lower gross profit margin of the color box business, which lowered the company’s overall gross profit margin, the company transferred three fee controls, increasing investment income and realizing net profit attributable to mothers7.

25 trillion, +26 a year.


In terms of revenue structure, the proportion of each business is: Cigarette Mark 76.

1%, laser packaging material 18.

0%, color box 13.

2%, internal interference -20.

0% and other about 12.

7%; due to the higher gross profit margin of the cigarette label business, the gross profit contribution accounted for nearly 80%, which is the main source of performance elasticity.

In historical performance, the company’s revenue and its compound net profit attributable to mothers during the period from 2014 to 2018 were 9.

8%, 5.

8%, average growth performance, and income statement due to non-operating income and expenditure, tax disturbance, performance is weaker than the income side.

In our opinion, the company’s current focus lies in: 1) the recovery of the industry and the optimization of the structure of the tobacco label business, which will continue to grow steadily in the next few years, making the company’s performance a good tone; 2) the business of color boxes and packaging materials is expanding rapidly, And gradually contribute to the performance flexibility; 3) the new tobacco business is still in the strategic layout period, or into a long-term profit growth point.

Tobacco label business: The short-term benefit of the cigarette industry is picking up, and the optimization of the industry structure in the medium term also has some highlights.

The tobacco label business is highly related to the cigarette industry. The short-term benefits of the tobacco market have improved. In the medium term, the company gradually changed the industry consolidation opportunity to increase market share: 1) After destocking in 2016, the industry’s production and sales and revenue growth gradually picked up. The tobacco market in 2018Significant improvement, according to the data of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration, a total of 11,556 tax advantages and disadvantages.

20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 3.

69%; The company seized the industry’s stability and improved, the cigarette brand structural upgrade, optimized the company’s product structure, expanded new markets and new products, and achieved a growth in cigarette label sales in 20187.

97%, revenue growth 8.

05%, performance industry; 2) Transformed into the national “level cigarette strategy” implemented by cigarette brands, and the standards of cigarette level include “continuous optimization of cigarette structure, continuous improvement of grades, stable price, stable sales growth”, etc.In several aspects, we believe that under the background of industry integration and optimization, the number of cigarette brands will continue to decrease and gradually gather to the mid-to-high end, which will help market leaders to accelerate business expansion and integration through mergers and acquisitions.

In the next few years, the company’s cigarette label business will still be the company’s core business and major performance contribution point, with a high probability of continuous industry average performance, and the growth rate is expected to remain at 5% -10%.

Color box and laser packaging materials business: rapid growth, and gradually contribute to the elasticity of performance.

1) Color box business: Revenue from color box business in 20184.

460,000 yuan, an increase of 67 in ten years.

09%, meanwhile, the business development is gratifying, which is to increase the customer base in the later period.

The company’s scale has been continuously improved by strengthening its post-press manufacturing capabilities, improving the performance of automated equipment, and increasing production capacity and sales; through reorganization, the company has maintained “China (Jinzhongzhi)”, “Nanjing (nine-five years honor)”, and “Yunyan” (largeNine)), “Moutai alcohol”, “Yanghe” and other well-known tobacco and alcohol brand color box packaging market share, while continuing to grow the market, product development efforts, continue to add new customers to expand new products, has obtained British American Tobacco, Renault Tobacco, Philip Morris International, Yue Ke and other well-known brands of new tobacco products qualified supplier qualification; well-known liquor brands such as “Jinjiu”, “Red Star Erguotou”, “Jiang Xiaobai” outer packaging, etc., for the subsequent continuous high-growth growth customersBasics; 2) Laser packaging materials: the short-term growth rate has improved, and the promotion of investment projects has some highlights.

In 2018, the company’s laser packaging materials achieved revenue6.

08 million yuan, an increase of 4 in ten years.

62%, which is equivalent to the improvement in the growth rate in 2017; we believe that with the completion of the 2019 fund-raising project “China Toyota Optoelectronics Technology Reconstruction and Expansion” and in conjunction with the company’s recent active expansion of extended customers, the business can return to medium-speed growth and can be expected.
New tobacco: It is still in the strategic layout period, or it may become a point of long-term profit growth.

The development of the new tobacco industry that the company pays close attention to has already been carried out through the parent company and part-time subsidiaries in the early strategic layout, or has become a point of long-term profit growth: 1) Jinjia Technology, a subsidiary, actively promotes its products to tobacco companies.Has cooperated with China Tobacco companies in Yunnan, Shanghai, Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Chongqing; 2) Shenzhen Jinjia Health, a wholly-owned subsidiary, and Shenzhen Qianhai Fosun Ruizhe Asset Management Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Fosun Group, have established joint venturesPromote investment and mergers and acquisitions of high-quality targets in the field of new tobacco and health technology; 3) The company establishes a joint venture with Beijing Miwu Technology and Shenzhen Nanqiao Qianhai Innovation Fund Partnership to make use of the advantages of various parties in technology and capital to promoteThe development of new tobacco products; 4) The company and Yunnan Tobacco Industry signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement to jointly promote the research and production and sales of new products in the field of new tobacco products. Jinjia Technology and its subsidiary Shenzhen Huayu Technology Development jointly invested to establish a joint venture companyTo achieve the implementation of strategic cooperation.

Earnings forecast and rating: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

58 yuan, 0.

65 yuan and 0.
72 yuan, currently corresponding to 2019-2021 price-earnings ratios of 20 respectively.
2 times, 17.

9 times and 16.

1x coverage for the first time, giving the company a “cautious recommendation” rating.

Risk reminders: The boom of the cigarette industry is shifting; the advancement of new tobacco strategies is blocked.

Shengyi Technology (600183): 3Q19 performance in line with expectations 5G construction cycle brings continued high prosperity

Shengyi Technology (600183): 3Q19 performance in line with expectations 5G construction cycle brings continued high prosperity

3Q19 results were in line with expectations for 1-3Y19 results: revenue 94.

700 million, five years growth.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 10.

4 percent, an increase of 28 per year.


Among them, the third quarter revenue was 35.

0 million yuan, an increase of 10% in ten years; net profit attributable to mother 4.

13 ppm, a 49% increase in one year, in line with our expectations.

Gross profit margin in the third quarter increased by 1 compared with the second quarter.

3ppt to 28.

4%, reflecting the increase in the proportion of high-frequency boards and high-speed boards driven by 5G communication equipment.

Development Trend The 5G construction cycle will drive a high level of communication CCL / PCB, and the company will continue to benefit.

Terminating in the third quarter, Huawei, the main 5G equipment supplier, has signed more than 60 5G commercial contracts with leading global operators, and more than 400,000 5G Massive MIMO AAUs have been sent to around the world for 150,000 times in several months.The expansion of 2,5G base stations has accelerated significantly.

As the 深圳桑拿网 core partners of Huawei, ZTE and other companies in 5G CCL / PCB, we believe that the company will continue to benefit from the steady progress in conversion to 5G construction.

CCL’s economic climate has picked up in the second half of the year, and raw material prices have stabilized.

Looking at the overall situation in the third quarter, the downward trend of copper prices has slowed down, and the prices of glass fiber and epoxy resin have stabilized.

The company’s products are mainly used for communication products. Through the acceleration of the 5G process, the prosperity of the third quarter has obviously improved and rebounded. The gross profit margin increased by 1% from the impact of the increase in the proportion of 5G.

3ppt to 28.


Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the company is expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity, and the proportion of 5G products will also continue to increase, which is beneficial to the company’s profit growth.

High-frequency and high-speed products and good capacity expansion progress will bring growth momentum for the company.

The company’s Nantong CCL has contributed revenue since April and has made good annual progress. We believe that it is expected to gain customer share in the future to replace American customers.

The company plans that the Jiangxi convertible bond raising project is expected to be put into production at the end of the year or early next year. The planned production capacity is 18 million square meters per year (the company’s revenue in 2018 is 85 million square meters), which is expected to lay a good foundation for the company’s growth next year and welcome the 5G construction volume.

At the same time, the production expansion of Shengyi Electronics PCB continued.

In terms of 5G communication PCB prices, we expect a gradual volume explosion, and prices may improve slightly, but for the company, it will still increase its performance contribution.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates As 5G ‘s gross profit margin for copper clad laminates exceeds expectations, we raise our 2019/2020 earnings forecasts and earnings per share by 10% / 9% to RMB 0.

65 yuan / 0.

78 yuan.

Shengyi is currently expected to correspond to 39.

3x 2019 P / E ratio and 32.

7 times 2020 price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Outperform rating. Due to the increased certainty of the 5G construction cycle, considering the overall P / E ratio of the sector, we raised our target price by 13% to RMB 26, corresponding to 40 times the 2019 P / E ratio and 33 2020 P / E ratio, which is 2 compared to the current pioneer.% Upspace.

Risk 5G construction progress is less than expected; product prices continue to decline.

Dongfang Yuhong (002271): Real estate replenishment inventory is not over yet fast growth is confirmed in 2020

Dongfang Yuhong (002271): Real estate replenishment inventory is not over yet fast growth is confirmed in 2020

The company released the 2019 performance report, and the company realized revenue of 181 in 2019.

4 billion, an annual increase of 29.

1%, net profit attributable to mother 20.

900 million, an increase of 38 in ten years.


Comment: The fastest growth in Q4 revenue was mainly due to the high base in the same period of 18 years and the early quarter of the 20th Spring Festival. Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 revenues were 26.

9, 52.


9 and 52.

400 million, an increase of 41 each year.

0%, 40.

8%, 35.

2% and 10.

3%, Q4 growth rate has slowed down We judge mainly due to the high base of Q4 in 18 years (18 years Q1 revenue growth rate of 27.

2%, and accelerated to 42 by Q4.

3%). Another reason is that the Spring 杭州桑拿网Festival in 2020 was earlier, and many construction sites in the northern region began to stop work after New Year’s Day, which directly affected the company’s replacement in late December.

Net profit grew faster than revenue, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in expense ratio. In terms of quarters, Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 net profit were 1.

27, 7.

89, 6.

50 and 5.

1.9 billion, an increase of 28 each year.

89%, 51.

77%, 30.

11% and 31.


The growth of profits is higher than the growth of revenues. We judge that there are two main reasons. The first is the decline in the expense ratio during the period. The company optimized its internal management structure in the fourth quarter of 2018. It generated significant results in 2019, and the expense ratio fell during the first three quartersAbout 1 federation.

Gross profit margin is another reason why the company’s net profit is growing faster than revenue growth. Asphalt prices continued to fall after rising in March 2019, but continued to increase from the beginning of the year to November before falling.

The overall performance is still excellent, and the expected impact of the epidemic on the company is limited to 23 in 2019.

3%, an increase of 2.

With 9 units, the company, as the industry leader, still performs well in 2019.

20 years of real estate replenishment continues, as the company’s waterproof 2B end leader, maintaining a high degree of certainty of rapid growth.

Considering that the first quarter itself is the off-season of revenue and profit, February itself has been the worst month in the first quarter, and the overall impact of the epidemic on Q1 depends on the resumption of work in March.

Due to the relatively flexible production capacity of the downstream construction industry, and with reference to the situation in Guangdong and Beijing during the SARS period, there has been a noticeable rush to work after the epidemic has improved. Therefore, from this point of view, we judge that the company is limited by the epidemic.

Maintaining the “Buy” rating, we estimate that the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 181.

400 million, 220.

200 million, 264.

1 ppm, an increase of 29 each year.
1%, 21.
4%, 19.

9%; net profit attributable to mothers is 20.

100 million, 25.

500 million, 31.

200 million, an increase of 38 each year.

2%, 22.

2%, 22.


The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

40 yuan / share, 1.

71 yuan / share and 2.

10 yuan / share, corresponding PE is 20/17 / 14x respectively. The replenishment of real estate construction projects is not over, and the increase in the proportion of precision-furnished houses means the accelerated expansion of the waterproof material 2B market. The company, as an industry leader, is determined to benefit and is expected to continueFast growth, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest that real estate investment is worse than expected; macro policy direction changes.

Tianmu Lake (603136): Cost and efficiency increase drive return to mothers

Tianmu Lake (603136): Cost and efficiency increase drive return to mothers

Introduction to this report: Due to the weather factors in the first quarter, the revenue in the first half of the year rose slightly, but the further improvement in management efficiency drove the return to motherhood.

The company’s incremental projects are steadily advancing and actively seeking outward expansion.

Investment Highlights: The performance is in line with expectations, and the holdings are increased.

Maintain 2019/20/21 EPS1.



46 yuan, the company is a private attraction, high efficiency and external expectations, but taking into account macro factors and the potential price cuts across the country, the industry will be given a 20xPE estimate in 2020 and the target price will be reduced to 25.

8 yuan.

Brief description of results: 2019H1 achieved operating income2.

200 million / + 0.

27%,南京桑拿网 realized net profit attributable to mother 5371.

40,000 yuan / + 9.

56%, deducted non-net profit of 51.69 million / + 14.


The influence of factors such as the weather in the first quarter dragged down revenue slightly, and efficiency led to the same increase in profit.

①The revenue of the hot spring company is +1.

6%, net profit -25.

5%; Travel agency revenue 2.

89%, net profit +1.

87%; Zhuhai revenue was -0.

1%, net profit +5.

5%; ropeway revenue + 142%, net profit + 318%; ② under the circumstances of a slight increase in revenue, the non-net profit attributable to mothers was increased by 14.

8%, mainly reducing costs and increasing efficiency at the expense end, of which operating costs also decreased by 4.

17%, mainly due to reduced depreciation and reduced maintenance costs, and sales expenses also decreased by 0.

75%, and realized interest income on financial expenses, while reducing overall operating costs by 6 at the same time.


The cash flow performance was stable, and the progress of incremental projects accelerated.

① Cash flow performed well and operating cash flow inflows.

US $ 5.4 billion was matched with revenue, cash flow from operating activities increased, and pay for major categories of employees increased by 25%. As a result, net operating cash flow decreased by 20%.

46%; ② The ending balance of the Yuxi Hot Spring Phase II Zhuxigu project under construction has been increased from 12.15 million to 33.22 million, indicating that the progress is accelerating; Nanshan Zhuhai Ropeway Project continues to advance, and is currently in the stage of design prevention and disposal; ③In the future, the company will invest abroad based on the direction of professional development and actively seek out extension directions and projects.

Risk warning: weather affects passenger flow; uncertainty of project construction progress; impact of lifting the ban in the future.

Hengrui Medicine (600276): Interim report is beautiful, Erica is expected to become a phenomenal product

Hengrui Medicine (600276): Interim report is beautiful, Erica is expected to become a phenomenal product

Key Investment Events: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, reporting that the two companies achieved operating income of 100.

26 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

2%, net profit attributable to mother 24.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

3%, deducting non-net profit 22.

89 ‰, an increase of 25 in ten years.

2%; realized operating cash flow14.

52 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.


Opinion: The company’s overall performance is in line with market expectations.

The company’s revenue in the first half of the year exceeded the 10 billion mark for the first time, of which Q2 achieved revenue of 50 in a single quarter.

59 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

6%, a slight increase in the earlier Q1. We believe that it is mainly driven by the continuous increase in the volume of newly approved products; the profit growth rate is 27.

0%, profit growth rate is lower than revenue growth rate mainly due to Q2’s sales expense ratio increased; Q2 company’s sales expense ratio and management expense ratio were 37.

1% and 8.

4%, overall remained stable compared with the same period last year.

Key areas and product performance: With reference to IQVIA data and terminal research, we expect the company to achieve revenue growth rates of 30%, 40% and 20% in the fields of tumor, angiography and anesthesia, respectively.

Among them, docetaxel, irinotecan, tigio, and apatinib have achieved revenue growth of -5%, + 15%, 10%, and 5%, respectively.It added 500 million and more than 200 million supplementary contributions; iodixanol, sevoflurane, butorphanol, key products in the field of contrast agents and anesthesia, achieved revenue 无锡桑拿网 growth of 45%, 15%, and 100%, respectively.

With the approval of multiple ANDAs overseas, especially in the United States after 2018, we expect the company to achieve more than 20% revenue growth overseas in the first half of the year.

R & D continues to remain high investment, and the pipeline of innovative drugs is constantly enriching: reports and company R & D expenses14.

84 ppm, a 49-year increase of 49.


At present, the company has more than 30 new active substances in the clinical stage, of which 12 new active substances are in the phase III clinical stage. SHR6390 (CDK4 / 6 inhibitor), SHR3680 (AR inhibitor), SHR3162 (PARP) Inhibitors), both entered Phase III clinical trials in the first half of the year, with the first two targets domestically progressing.

Continuous breakthroughs in the development of indications for PD-1 products: Karelizumab (brand name Erica) was officially launched at the end of July 2019. In addition to the approved classic Hodgkin lymphoma, KarelizumabKang has obtained positive data from three clinical trials of solid tumor registration, namely second-line liver cancer, second-line esophageal cancer, and first-line non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer; second-line liver cancer has been officially reported, and second-line esophageal cancer is also in the NDA preparation processThe just-announced 2019 WCLC summary Karelizumab for first-line treatment of NSCLC has excellent clinical data (PFS: 11).

3mo vs 8.

3mo), is the world’s second trial of PD-1 combined with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of non-scale NSCLC with positive results.

The clinical development of large tumors is among the best in the country. With the breakthrough of the first domestically produced first-line vein, with flexible pricing and the support of a strong promotion team, Carelizumab is expected to become a phenomenal product.

Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, and esophageal cancer are expected to be the largest target market for PD-1 / L1 antibody drugs in China. With reference to our related research, the domestic market of the four major tumor types is expected to exceed 32 billion; KarelizumabThe first-line clinical trials for the four major tumor types have been completed, and most have progress advantages, and have obtained 3 positive data; especially the non-squamous NSCLC first-line, in addition to the approved K drug, the company’s progress is significantly ahead of otherIn the same industry, K medicine used to be able to cure the first-line development success, so that the sales came later.

Erica’s pricing strategy is flexible, and annualized treatment costs after drug donation11.

90,000 yuan (under indication), is one of the most cost-effective PD-1 antibody drugs in China.

Sales scale. The company has the largest oncology drug promotion team in China, with significant advantages in product access and penetration.

In summary, taking advantage of indications, pricing, and promotion teams, we expect that Carelizumab is expected to gain more than 20% of the market in the domestic PD-1 market, which is expected to exceed 40 billion.

Earnings forecast and investment advice: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 53.

400 million, 67.

800 million, 87.

200 million, an increase of 31 each year.

2%, 27.

2% and 28.5%.

We give the company generic drugs and already apatinib, pirlotinib profit 30-35 times, corresponding to the market value of 1800-2100 ppm in 2020; DCF estimation of the company’s innovative drug echelon, a discount factor of 8%, has considered different stagesThe market probability of innovative drugs corresponds to a value of 2009 trillion in 2019, and the company’s total market value in 2020 is 3809-4109 trillion, corresponding to a target interval of 86.


9 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning events: the risk of new drug development not meeting expectations; the risk of drug price reduction; the risks related to drug quality and safety.

Yunda shares (002120): 2019 business volume exceeded 10 billion votes optimistic about the leading position of Yunda

Yunda shares (002120): 2019 business volume exceeded 10 billion votes optimistic about the leading position of Yunda
The company’s recent situationThe company announced that as of December 29, 2019, the cumulative courier package revenue has exceeded 10 billion pieces, so we calculate it to be 69 compared to 2018.8.5 billion pieces have achieved a growth rate of at least 43%. It is expected to exceed the industry growth rate (estimated to be 25%) with 19 mergers and 2 expansions to 15.8%.It is implied that the company’s business volume growth rate reached at least 45% in December, which was significantly accelerated in the earlier 10 months (30%) and 11 months (38%). Commentary business volume rebounded, dispel market doubts.In October, the company’s business volume growth rate changed from August (45%) and September (41%) to 30%, which caused the market to replace the company’s fundamentals and competitive strategies. We highlighted the company’s unit price in the monthly report review at the timeThe performance is better than its peers, so we believe that the growth target may be the company’s proactive strategic choice: to limit some large goods, heavy goods, and optimize the structure of the goods before the peak season (small pieces are easier to sort automatically and improve the loading rate).Service quality is guaranteed during peak season in November.We think the company’s rebound in business volume growth in November and December basically validates our view. The effect of lifting the ban on restricted shares is under control and has been expected by the market.74% of the company’s total share capital.12% of the restricted shares were listed and traded on December 24, 2019. The main shareholders are the actual controllers, concert parties and external financial 都市夜网 investors.According to the rules of the Exchange, if the actual controller and its concerted parties reduce their holdings through block transactions, the total number of shares to be reduced shall not exceed 2% of the total number of shares of the company within any consecutive 90 natural days.The three shareholders (mainly employees ‘flat platforms) who constitute concerted actions have reduced their holdings by 2% through block transactions on December 24, so we expect these shareholders’ pressure to reduce their holdings to improve in the next three months.As for financial investors, Ningbo Zhaoyin Bank, Taifu Xiangchuan and other five financial investors hold a total of 9 companies.We believe that these shareholders may have plans to reduce their holdings based on their capital needs, but it is also expected to reduce the pressure on the secondary market through arrangements such as block transactions. The industry is expected to move towards benign and healthy development, and Yunda, as a leader, has solid fundamentals.Recently, the Beijing Municipal Market Supervision and Administration Bureau has also issued the “Beijing Express Delivery Industry Price Behavior Rules”, which includes definitions that must not “collusion with each other and manipulate market prices”, “abuse of dominant substitution, exclusion, and restrict price competition”, and must also avoidIn order to “dump the conflict or monopolize the market and dump at a price lower than the cost”, we believe that it guides the industry to a healthy and benign development trajectory.We reiterate the view of “Fine Management to Create a Leader in the Express Delivery Industry” and are optimistic about the growth of the express delivery industry and the advantages of Yunda as a leader. It is recommended to deduct non-post P / E until 22/2020, and we maintain our outperforming industry rating and target price of 40.4 yuan, corresponding to 28 times 2020 P / E and 24% growth space. The volume of risk business grew faster than expected, the unit price increased significantly, and the lifting of the ban on restricted stocks suppressed market sentiment.

Wanwei High-tech (600063) Company In-depth Study: Three Highlights of PVA Demand Are Worth Looking Forward

Wanwei High-tech (600063) Company In-depth Study: Three Highlights of PVA Demand Are Worth Looking Forward
Report summary: The main business has passed the cold winter, and the PVA leader has entered the harvest period. PVA prices have steadily increased since 2018. Among them, the decline in prices of major raw materials calcium carbide and acetic acid in 2019 has widened the PVA spread.We estimate the current company’s PVA gross profit per ton is about 4040 yuan, net profit per ton is about 2600 yuan.As the leader of PVA, the company has a market share of more than 35%, and its performance is flexible.  The supply situation has improved significantly. The short-term and mid-to-long-term basic industries have experienced many years of downturn since 2008-2016. After undergoing the reshuffle of 杭州夜网论坛 the industry, companies with insufficient advantages have changed, and have gradually stopped production and exited.At present, the industry has formed a three-system layout represented by the Anhui Department, the Sinopec Department and the Private Department. The three departments account for about 80% of the effective domestic production capacity. The concentration of the PVA industry has been improved.  The demand for PVA has been increasing, and the company’s production and sales have increased at a faster rate.In 2019, the industry’s PVA production and sales have increased at a faster rate than in 2018. Some companies, such as Wanwei High-tech, have grown and increased.In a certain period of 2006, the highest growth rate was about 15%. Faster growth is expected in two aspects: first, the export continues a good growth trend, and second, the demand for new materials such as PVA optical films and PVB continues to grow.  Downstream new material applications continue to be developed. Three highlights are worth looking forward to. The downstream new material field is expected to become a growth point that drives the demand for PVA, which are polarizers and optical films, PVB, and high-strength high-mode fibers.The company’s 7 million square meters of polarizers and supporting optical film projects are expected to be put into production in the next year. The industrialization experience of 5 million square meters of PVA optical films has been achieved before.The company’s PVB film has reached the standard for architectural safety glass, and is expected to further develop into windshields in the automotive field in the future.After years of development and cultivation of high-strength and high-mold, the production and sales volume in recent years has ushered in a breakthrough growth, and the process of replacing asbestos has continued to accelerate.  Investment suggestion As a leader in PVA industry integration, the company will benefit from the upward price of PVA.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be, 0.39 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 17.3, 12.7 and 9.4 times, the company PB (MRQ) is 1.46 times, ranking second in the industry.07 times, give “recommended” rating.  Risks prompt the industry to exit production capacity and resume production beyond expectations; raw material prices have risen sharply, and the progress of polarizers has fallen short of expectations.

HKUST Xunfei (002230): The core business card has obvious advantages in cost control and has achieved significant results

HKUST Xunfei (002230): The core business card has obvious advantages in cost control and has achieved significant results
Guide to this report: The company participates in exchange day activities.The company’s core business has obvious advantages, weakened by financial impact, has significant cost control benefits, and maintains an increase in holdings.  Event: On August 23, the company participated in the exchange day activities.  Comment: Maintain overweight.The core business has obvious advantages, is weakened by financial impact, and has significant cost control benefits. It maintains the forecast of EPS0 for 2019-2021.41/0.62/1.02 yuan, maintaining a target price of 40.58 yuan. The company has certain obvious advantages in the three major scenarios and is expected to become the main growth point.1) Office scene: The company has formed a full-stack product system around the office scene, covering hearing website services for light users (unit price below 1,000 yuan), M1 / recording for medium users (unit price of several thousand yuan)Pens / offices, transcribing machines for B-end users (customer unit price over ten thousand yuan).2) Educational scenario: B-side business penetration rate has further improved space, and merged B-side data accumulation to extend to C-side, gradually realizing business connotation (education information to AI), business model (project model to product system, operation system)Two advanced.3) Political and legal scenes: Political and legal services have covered 31 provinces, and the coverage rate has exceeded 90% in high-level institutions such as high courts and provincial inspections. The requirements for confidentiality of political and legal industry data are high, and the degree of standardization is high.4) We believe that the company has realized the G-end card position advantage + B-end segmented industry data advantage in all three core scenarios, and integrated the moat of the protection industry, and gradually realized overweight C-end business to realize data monetization. Track focus / C-end business development, weakened by financial conditions.1) The company’s consolidated revenue growth has improved. In addition to the company’s active focus on the core track and strategic contraction of products with little room for future development, it is also related to increased government financial pressure.2) We believe that the impact of the expansion of government financial pressure on the company will gradually be broken down: ① At the end of the business exploration phase, the company’s business will be more focused on core tracks such as education and medical care, which have counter-cyclical attributes; 佛山桑拿网 ② C-end business proportionHope to further improve, the 2019 H1 company’s C-end business (including intelligent hardware, open platforms, telecommunications value-added product operations, mobile Internet products and services, personalized learning, etc.) revenue growth rate of 45%, higher than the company’s overall growth rate of 13.7 points, revenue and gross profit accounted for 37.3%, 39.8%, an increase of 3.5pct, 2.5 points. The cost control benefits are significant, and the profit margin outlook is gradually picking up.1) 2019H1 company’s sales expense growth rate is 20.4%, management expenses increased by 30%.7%, all far below 2018H1 (77.1%, 65.6%), indicating that the company has achieved significant achievements in cost control.2) During the business exploration period, the company experienced the rapid expansion 四川耍耍网 of technical personnel (2016, 2017) and the rapid expansion of marketing personnel (2018), changing the focus of the company’s business direction, improving channel construction, and promoting the concentration of resourcesAt the core circuit, the demand for additional personnel will be effectively controlled, and profit margins are expected to gradually rise. Risk Warning: Financial pressure threatens the company’s B-side business expansion, etc.

Shuijingfang (600779): Benefit from industry growth and channel expansion Sub-high-end products maintain rapid growth

Shuijingfang (600779): Benefit from industry growth and channel expansion Sub-high-end products maintain rapid growth

Sub-high-end products maintained rapid growth, and structural upgrades and scale effects increased profitability. The company’s 18-year revenue28.

190,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.

62%, 18Q4 income 6.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.


1Q1 revenue 9.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 24.


It is reported that the company’s online communication conference published on the ZOOM platform, 19Q1 premium wine income9.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.

31%, including high-end product line revenue growth of 1%, sub-high-end product line revenue growth of more than 30%.

Medium and high-end wine (including 0.

24 trillion mid-range wine) revenue growth 28.

51%, of which sales increased by 27.

09%, mainly benefited from the company’s channel expansion, the ton price increased slightly due to the structural upgrade1.


Net profit attributable to 成都桑拿网 mother for 18 years5.

79 trillion, an increase of 72 in ten years.

72%, 18Q4 attributed to mother net profit1.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.


19Q1 returns to mother’s net profit 2.

19 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.


1Q1 gross margin increased by 1.

79 PCT to 82.

58%, we expect to benefit mainly from the ton price increase brought about by the product structure upgrade.

The company’s 19Q1 expense ratio benefited from the scale effect of more than 4 PCT declines.

Benefiting from the growth of the sub-high-end industry and the development of internal channels, the steady and steady growth of earnings According to the company’s 18-year report, the company’s revenue growth target for 19 years was about 20%, and its net profit growth target was about 30%.

We expect the company to benefit from the growth of the next high-end industry and its own channel expansion is expected to achieve its revenue target.

The continued high-end of the product aims to continue to improve profitability.

In the future, the company will increase its investment in well platforms, and at the same time continue to promote the newly launched collections and elites. The products will continue to be high-end and the gross profit rate will be continuously improved.

It is expected that the profitability will continue to increase due to the reduction in the expense ratio brought about by the scale effect and the price increase effect brought by the reduction of the incremental rate.

Earnings forecast We expect the company’s revenue to be 34 in 19-21.



43 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

65% / 22.41% / 21.

52%; net profit attributable to mothers is 7, respectively.



710,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

45% / 28.

51% / 25.

98%; EPS are 1.



60 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 29/23/18 times. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 3 years is 30%. We give 30 times PE in 19 years, corresponding to PEG equal to 1, and a reasonable value of 48.

3 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

Risk warning: intensified second-end competition, consumption upgrades exceed expectations, and structural upgrades fall short of expectations.