Yunda shares (002120): 2019 business volume exceeded 10 billion votes optimistic about the leading position of Yunda

Yunda shares (002120): 2019 business volume exceeded 10 billion votes optimistic about the leading position of Yunda
The company’s recent situationThe company announced that as of December 29, 2019, the cumulative courier package revenue has exceeded 10 billion pieces, so we calculate it to be 69 compared to 2018.8.5 billion pieces have achieved a growth rate of at least 43%. It is expected to exceed the industry growth rate (estimated to be 25%) with 19 mergers and 2 expansions to 15.8%.It is implied that the company’s business volume growth rate reached at least 45% in December, which was significantly accelerated in the earlier 10 months (30%) and 11 months (38%). Commentary business volume rebounded, dispel market doubts.In October, the company’s business volume growth rate changed from August (45%) and September (41%) to 30%, which caused the market to replace the company’s fundamentals and competitive strategies. We highlighted the company’s unit price in the monthly report review at the timeThe performance is better than its peers, so we believe that the growth target may be the company’s proactive strategic choice: to limit some large goods, heavy goods, and optimize the structure of the goods before the peak season (small pieces are easier to sort automatically and improve the loading rate).Service quality is guaranteed during peak season in November.We think the company’s rebound in business volume growth in November and December basically validates our view. The effect of lifting the ban on restricted shares is under control and has been expected by the market.74% of the company’s total share capital.12% of the restricted shares were listed and traded on December 24, 2019. The main shareholders are the actual controllers, concert parties and external financial 都市夜网 investors.According to the rules of the Exchange, if the actual controller and its concerted parties reduce their holdings through block transactions, the total number of shares to be reduced shall not exceed 2% of the total number of shares of the company within any consecutive 90 natural days.The three shareholders (mainly employees ‘flat platforms) who constitute concerted actions have reduced their holdings by 2% through block transactions on December 24, so we expect these shareholders’ pressure to reduce their holdings to improve in the next three months.As for financial investors, Ningbo Zhaoyin Bank, Taifu Xiangchuan and other five financial investors hold a total of 9 companies.We believe that these shareholders may have plans to reduce their holdings based on their capital needs, but it is also expected to reduce the pressure on the secondary market through arrangements such as block transactions. The industry is expected to move towards benign and healthy development, and Yunda, as a leader, has solid fundamentals.Recently, the Beijing Municipal Market Supervision and Administration Bureau has also issued the “Beijing Express Delivery Industry Price Behavior Rules”, which includes definitions that must not “collusion with each other and manipulate market prices”, “abuse of dominant substitution, exclusion, and restrict price competition”, and must also avoidIn order to “dump the conflict or monopolize the market and dump at a price lower than the cost”, we believe that it guides the industry to a healthy and benign development trajectory.We reiterate the view of “Fine Management to Create a Leader in the Express Delivery Industry” and are optimistic about the growth of the express delivery industry and the advantages of Yunda as a leader. It is recommended to deduct non-post P / E until 22/2020, and we maintain our outperforming industry rating and target price of 40.4 yuan, corresponding to 28 times 2020 P / E and 24% growth space. The volume of risk business grew faster than expected, the unit price increased significantly, and the lifting of the ban on restricted stocks suppressed market sentiment.