Shentong Express (002468): Volume increase, price reduction, profitability infringement and cracking

Shentong Express (002468): Volume increase, price reduction, profitability infringement and cracking

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 156 in the first three quarters.

5.6 billion, an annual increase of 41.

01%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 11.

06 ‰, a decrease of 31 per year.

35%, net profit after deducting non-attribution is 10.

49 trillion, a decrease of 16 a year.


Revenue maintained a high growth and profit decreased significantly.

Because the company sold Shenzhen Fengchao Technology Co., Ltd.’s equity in the third quarter of last year to generate a large amount of investment income, resulting in changes in net profit attributable to mothers in the third quarter.

In the single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 57 in the third quarter.

85 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

67%, net profit after deduction of non-return to mother is 2.

670,000 yuan, an average of 38 in ten years.


Against the impact of industry price wars, the company’s average single ticket revenue in the third quarter was 2.

80 yuan, an average of 13 for ten years.

13%, ring-on-epoxy 8.

30%, the industry has the highest price drop.

At the same time, the company built a new transshipment center and directly operated the center around the average daily processing capacity of 35 million units, which caused the company’s operating costs to increase by 40 per year in the third quarter.

37% squeezed profit growth.

Affected by this, the third quarter gross profit margin was 8.

94%, compared with the previous two quarters13.

03% / 14.

66% is very obvious.

In exchange for price, business volume growth leads the industry.

Stimulated by low prices, the company’s business volume increased significantly, and the completed business volume in July, August, and September was 6, respectively.

3.5 billion votes / 6.

7.5 billion votes / 7.

2.5 billion votes, with a 10-year growth of 52.

15% / 55.

53% / 50.

73%, the third quarter business volume growth led the industry, the first three quarters business volume accounted for 11 of the industry size.

49%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.


In September, the company’s average daily order volume was about 24 million 杭州桑拿 orders.

Continue to consolidate and speed up the construction progress of the transfer center.

The company’s existing fixed assets are 27.

76 ppm, an increase of 88 in ten years.33% in the third quarter was 7 projects.

640,000 yuan, an increase of 2 from the first half of the report.

1 billion yuan, the company continued to increase the construction of transshipment centers and direct transformation.

Investment suggestion: The industry’s fierce price wars will reduce competitive profits, while the company’s transshipment center construction and business volume increase will take time, and it will still bear acceptable cost pressure in the short term.

The company’s EPS for 2019/2020/2021 is expected to be 1.



77 yuan, PE is 18x, 15x, 12x, downgraded to “overweight” level.

Risk warning: 上海夜网论坛 The growth rate of e-commerce is rapidly expanding, the price war is intensifying, and the cost is increasing significantly.